By Musa Muhammad Hadejia
Suspicion, despair, suspense and superiority complex characterized the peace deal brokered by Pakistan on the Iran/US War that lasted for more than 3 months. The peace deal is aimed at creating a safe landing for both parties despite the highly contentious issues at stake. Iran is adamant on self-determination, while the US is more determined on the imperialist position that intends to curtail any possible economic and political credentials of the Iranian people.
The US has continued to hold off its attacks on Iran as Iran has been defiant on the US proposals that look to Iran more of an imperialist conduct that will nail its coffin at the end. The Iranian military said it has halted its retaliatory attacks on US allies in the Middle East after Washington paused its strikes on Iran for the last two nights that followed 13 consecutive nights of strikes by the US.
Recently, six vessels that attempted to transit through the route other than the one designated were stopped by the Iranian Republican Guard Council Navy with warning shots and turned back.
Earlier, one of such recalcitrant vessels was shattered to pieces by the IRGC Navy to stress further their total control of the Strait. So far Iran has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormutz since the start of the Middle East war in late February.
Furthermore, the Iranian officials have ramped up their threats towards Kiev after an Iranian vessel was attacked in the Caspian Sea, killing one and injuring three. Foreign minister Abbas Aragchi warned that the incident cannot go unanswered. So far, maritime check points of commercial vessels through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, and the Strait of Hormuz slowed down during the weekend for fear of the possible actions from Iran.
So far global oil prices have fallen sharply as Brent global bench mark declined by 6.7% to trade at 90 USD a barrel, and by 3.37%, while the US bench mark has dropped to 6.1% to 84 a barrel around the same time.
Oil traders are doubly jittery and wary given the threat of attacks on Saudi tankers by Iranian backed Houthi fighters in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait at the base of the sea. Deutsche Bank analysts said Houthi attacks raise the prospect of simultaneous disruptions to both Gulf and Red Sea export routes. So, there is a welcome pause from the main actors, but a fragile one, especially with side battles and skirmishes going on.
Iranian Foreign Ministry has again reiterated that it has not at any time requested for the ceasefire with US; adding that its position remains unchanged, and will continue to be the same always in as per as the US keeps posing as an imperialist power that has no respect for international rules and decorum.
The war has caused drastic oil cut offs on the route to Saudi Arabia to reach refineries in Asia via the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
The alternative is far lengthier and more complex route through the Suez Canal, which also involves partially discharging cargoes and using the SUMED pipeline because of draft restrictions in the canal.
So far, the US president seeks to classify the renewed hostility with Iran as a separate one from the Operation Epic Fury, as the US military’s official name for the Iran Conflict. The change is tied to the War Act of 1973, which requires the president to end military operations within 60 days, unless the Congress authorizes an extension.
The Trump administration has argued that the April ceasefire with Iran paused the clock on I May for the conflict’s initial period. The separate casualty count beginning on July follows that interpretation. A position vehemently rejected by the opposition Democrats – calling it a renewed hijack of their mandate.
The story keeps on trending, while the world keeps on watching with keen interests in the conflict for both territorial and global economic supremacy. Will the IRGC succumb to US and foreign pressures, or will the US just do the needful in international laws and relations to bring an end to the seemingly desperate and rapacious ego of the self-acclaimed global super powers? Time is the final judge.
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